A damning 55 page report has been published on Wales’ public services - criticising our Healthcare & Education Services

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has today issued a "damning" 55-page report on the state of Wales' public services, concluding that both the healthcare and education systems are performing "substantially poorer" than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite higher per-person spending in Wales compared to England, the independent think tank warned that outcomes are lagging significantly behind, raising urgent questions about policy efficiency and productivity within the Welsh Government.

The Funding Paradox

A central finding of the report is that the decline in performance cannot be attributed to a lack of money.

The IFS notes that:

• Health spending per person in Wales is 9% higher than in England.

• Education spending per pupil is 7% higher than across the border.

• In real terms, health spending has risen by 17% and school spending by 14% since 2019.

"Funding levels seem unlikely to be a major factor," the report states, pointing instead to how services are delivered and managed.

A Crisis in the Classroom

The education sector faces particularly stark challenges. According to the analysis:

• Attendance Crisis: Average school absences have jumped from 6% in 2019 to 9% today. Even more concerningly, "persistent absence" (pupils missing more than 10% of sessions) has more than doubled, from 15% to 34%.

• Attainment Gap: Performance in international PISA tests has fallen more sharply in Wales than in England. In a striking comparison, the IFS found that middle-income pupils in Wales now perform no better than the poorest 20% of pupils in England.

NHS Productivity Declining

While the Welsh NHS has more funding and staff than it did five years ago, hospital activity has not increased at the same rate.

• Wait Times: The median wait for elective treatment in Wales was 19 weeks in December 2025, nearly double the 10.7 weeks recorded in 2019. By comparison, England's median wait sits at 13.4 weeks.

• Longer Stays: Average hospital stays in Wales are roughly 40% longer than in England, creating a "bottleneck" effect that reduces the number of patients hospitals can treat.

Warnings of an "Emergency Budget"

The report casts a long shadow over the upcoming Senedd election on 7th May. The IFS warns that the next Welsh Government will inherit a "slowdown in funding growth" and "unrealistic" health spending plans for the 2026–27 fiscal year.

The think tank suggests that without the recent top-ups provided by the UK Government in the Spring Statement, the next administration would have almost certainly been forced into an emergency post-election budget involving in-year cuts to other services to prop up the NHS.

Political Reaction

The findings have immediately become a political lightning rod. Welsh Conservative Shadow Ministers have called the report a "staggering decline" and evidence of "policy failure" after 27 years of Labour-led government. Meanwhile, the Welsh Government has previously defended its record, citing the unique demographic challenges of an older, more rural population and the long-term "scarring" effects of the pandemic.

Welsh Government Response

The Welsh Government has issued a robust defense of its record following the IFS report, shifting the focus toward the "unprecedented" impact of the pandemic and the UK’s funding framework.

While the report highlights a decline in productivity, Ministers have pointed to record-high staffing levels and the specific demographic pressures unique to Wales.

The Official Stance: "Staffing at an All-Time High"

The Welsh Government’s response centers on its investment in people. A written statement released by the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care, Jeremy Miles, emphasises that the NHS in Wales now employs 99,993 full-time equivalent staff - a 2% increase over the last year and over 13% higher than at the start of the current Senedd term.

Key counter-arguments from the Welsh Government include:

• Workforce Investment: Confirming a further £319.6 million for the 2026–27 academic year to train the next generation of healthcare professionals, arguing that "stability" is the priority during a "challenging financial period."

• Demographic Pressure: Ministers often argue that Wales has an older, sicker, and more rural population than England, which naturally leads to higher per-person costs and longer recovery times (explaining the 40% longer hospital stays noted by the IFS).

• Pandemic "Scarring": The government maintains that the "long tail" of COVID-19 has disproportionately affected Welsh communities, particularly in education where absence rates remain high.

Political Fallout: The "Fair Share" Debate

FM Eluned Morgan has used the timing of the report to double down on her calls for a "new chapter for devolution." Rather than accepting a simple "underperformance" narrative, the First Minister is pivoting the conversation toward structural funding reform.

"The Barnett formula reflects the needs of 20 years ago, not the Wales of today. We need an independent adjudicator to ensure financial fairness so we have the tools to deliver for our people." - Eluned Morgan, speaking on the need for funding reform.

Opposition Reaction

The response has not quieted critics. Samuel Kurtz MS (Welsh Conservatives) labeled the government's defence as "appalling," stating that "Labour and Plaid cannot keep blaming others while performance continues to decline" after nearly 30 years in power.

What Happens Next?

• 19th March 2026: The Welsh Government is scheduled to release its own official NHS performance data for the Local Health Boards. This will provide a more granular look at whether the "recent improvements" mentioned by Ministers are reflected in the latest waiting list numbers.

• 7th May 2026: The Senedd election. This IFS report is expected to be the central document for opposition parties as they campaign on a "change" platform.

In coming weeks, we will see how the WG responds & how they intend on dealing with these concerns.